Dr. Jeff Stein is a nationally recognized political analyst.
Story Created:
May 9, 2008 at 7:34 PM CDT
Story Updated:
May 9, 2008 at 7:34 PM CDT
((Brian's Note: Dr. Jeff Stein is the executive secretary of the Iowa Broadcast News Association. He covered his first Iowa presidential precinct caucus in 1980, making this eighth campaign as a reporter/analyst. You've heard his comments here on KSFY; his regular forum is as political analyst for KWWL Television in Cedar Rapids/Waterloo, Iowa.))
No. No, she should NOT get out of the race.
Never mind that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) is going to need a minor miracle (or a major scandal to befall her opponent) to win the Democratic nomination for president.
But until Sen. Barack Obama (D-Illinois) actually has locked up 2,025 delegates to August's national party convention (with some to spare, in case folks change their minds), it's not over. And she knows that.
Look how quickly the fates of fortune have already turned in this election cycle. Last summer, many claimed there was no way Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) would overcome lack of funding and lack of momentum.
Now the American war hero has a 50-50 chance of becoming the 44th president of the United States.
Last fall, the Democratic nomination was a foregone conclusion...Hillary Clinton would be the nominee by Valentine's Day.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the nomination...the voters actually had something to say.
Obama won in Iowa. Clinton finished third. Many wrote her off then.
Five short days later, she was the winner in New Hampshire.
So don't tell her--or me--that this thing is over. Is there another Rev. Wright issue to surface? How about comments that voters are "bitter"?
And if the role of 'super delegates' is to vote in the best interests of the party, what if by summer, Clinton has the best chance (poll-wise) to defeat McCain (as she does now)? Will they say they vote for the candidate with the 'best chance to win' the general election, or stick loyally to promises made in the dead of a Midwestern winter?
I understand the legendary George McGovern suggesting that she drop out; after all, it's not likely she will win, and he has more than earned the right to avoid being a mere prop at a campaign rally with the stench of losing surrounding it. That fully explains his allegiance switch only a day before she was to come to South Dakota.
But let her play the string out if she wants. It's less than a month until South Dakotans vote in the last primary election of the season. No greater harm will come to the party by her staying in. And Democrats may well thank her later for sticking it out.
It has so far been one of the most fascinating, historic election cycles ever. Why think it won't get even better before November?
((Brian's Note: Dr. Stein is helping to teach the next generation of broadcast journalist as a professor of broadcast journalism at Wartburg College in Waverly, Iowa.))