BLOG UPDATE 10/21/08 @ 4:20 PM
Forecast Still On Track

The forecast is still on track with my thoughts from earlier this morning. The latest forecast model runs continue to show that heavy rain is likely through Thursday with the heaviest rain falling tomorrow and tomorrow night.

There is still the potential for some snow mixed with the rain as cold air filters in from the north late tomorrow and tomorrow night. I don't expect much accumulation; however, as I said before, temperature is everything with this system. A change in just one or two degrees at the surface or aloft could make a big difference in the amount of rain vs. snow. Sioux Falls and the rest of the KSFY viewing area will see snow, however, the best chance for accumulation is across central Nebraska and portions of south central South Dakota. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for much of central Nebraska through tomorrow night. Patrs of west central Nebraska that are under the Winter Storm Watch for tomorrow and tomorroe night are under severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings this afternoon. 

Here are some links you can use for the latest information on this developing fall storm system.

Rain and snowfall forecast from the Sioux Falls National Weather Service

Latest Watches and Warnings from the National Weather Service

Below is the rainfall forecast for tonight through Thursday for Sioux Falls.

Previous Blog
Heavy rain and even some snow is possible across the KSFY viewing area later today through Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are possible across parts of southeast South Dakota. As temperatures drop on Wednesday, snow will mix with the rain. I don’t expect snow to accumulate in Sioux Falls, however, 2-3 inches of snow or more are possible across parts of south central South Dakota. Heavier amounts are possible in northern and central Nebraska where a Winter Storm Watch is in effect from, Wednesday morning through Thursday evening.

Stay tuned, I’ll continue to update the blog as we get new information. There is still potential for change in this forecast. With this type of fall storm, a slight one to two degree temperature change could mean the difference between rain or snow.