We're expecting severe weather again. I'll keep you posted on this blog throughout the night.

1:50AM CDT: Well this is the second night in a row I've spoke too soon. Buffalo and Hand counties are now under a severe thunderstorm warning until 2:15AM CDT. Looks to be another hail producer. It actually came out of nowhere. The environment to the east looks to be more stable and this area will calm these storms down.

1:40AM CDT: Watching the loop from the last hour and things seem to be backing off quite a bit. May be becoming a rain event quickly. I haven't gotten any reports of heavy rainfall just yet. I'm wondering what this system will do to our chances for tomorrow. It's going to depend on many things. If this line doesn't hang around for long, we should be very worried. The more sunshine we see, the worst off we're going to be. I'm sure the blog will be in full swing tomorrow. I'm actually thinking about doing it throughout the day to keep you updated as the situation develops.

Overall tonight was what we expected. If we missed anything, we thought that the severe stuff would be further to the south along I-90. Looks like we missed it slightly. However, we thought a hail producing and heavy wind event was in store for us and that's what we got. This will be my last post for tonight most likely. I'm just waiting on Patrick to get in at 2 so I can get some sleep and get it up and do it all over again. Thanks for checking in.

1:25AM CDT: The warning for Hand and Hyde counties have been canceled. We are out of warnings for the time. It also looks like the tops of the storms are much lower than before.

Some of the watch has been canceled too. Mellette, Todd, Tripp are out of the watch. This leaves Aurora, Brule, Charles Mix, Davison, Douglas, Gregory, and Lyman counties in the watch.

1:20AM CDT: Just got the outlook for Thursday's storms. Looks like another round, possibly the biggest round of the week. The tornado threat seems to return as well. Hail and wind will definitely be a threat too. We're actually in the significant hail area, which is over 2 inches in diameter.

1:15AM CDT: New severe thunderstorm warning Hand and Hyde counties until 1:45PM CDT.

All other warnings have been canceled or expired at this time.

1:00AM CDT: Hughes, Hyde, and Sully Counties are now under a warning until 1:15AM CDT for another hail producing storm. This is ahead of the current line which is a concern about how far ahead these may go.

Also, the warning for Dewey, Potter and Sully counties has been canceled.

Man, can't type fast enough. The warning was just expired for Hughes and Stanley counties. That included the Pierre area.

12:45AM CDT: A new warning until 1:15 AM CDT for Dewey, Potter and Sully. Nearly the same place as before for these counties. Hail being the biggest threat, once again.

12:30AM CDT: As I was typing the previous entry, a warning was issued for the Pierre area. Hughes and Stanley Counties now have warnings and Pierre is right in the heart of it. This warning goes until 1:00 AM and once again, hail seems to be the primary threat.

Also the warning in northern Stanley has been canceled, but remains for NW Sully and SE Dewey counties until 12:45 AM CDT.

12:30AM CDT: A good size cell is approaching the Pierre area. No warning yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if some small hail was reaching the ground.

12:15AM CDT: A new warning now for Stanley, Sully and Dewey counties. Suddenly this cell has re-fired. Hail is looking impressive once again from this cell.

12:10AM CDT: The cell right along the Mellette and Todd county border seems impressive to me. Going to keep an eye on it since it looks to be taking an aim on Winner.

12:05AM CDT: According to the hail focus the cell in Stanley county has started to lose strength and become much less organized. This is kind of expected since the most air to the east of the Missouri River is fairly stable. I wouldn't be surprised if this warning in Stanley County is allowed to expire in 10 minutes.

11:55PM CDT: The Cells in Mellette and Todd counties seem to be strengthening according to Titan's Hail Focus. They actually look stronger than the cell in Stanley county which has triggered the warning. Speaking of Stanley county the southern part of the county seems to be under the gun now!

11:45PM CDT I was starting to write that the cell moving into Stanley county looks bad and we got the warning for that county until 11:15 PM MDT. This area is not in the watch, but is the most severe area of the complex. Hall looks to be the biggest threat with this cell and it is covering a very small area.

11:35PM CDT: The warning in Jackson county has been canceled! That's good news for those of you in Mellette County. the storm will still roll through the area, but should be below severe limits!

11:25PM CDT: A discussion from the Storm Prediction Center states that we may be at the beginning of this and that the severe threat exist across the entire watch area. A lower level jet is starting to kick in, which will drive these storms.

11:15PM CDT: New warning that looks to be an extension of the previous on in Haakon County. This one is for NE Haakon and SE Ziebach county until 11:45PM MDT. That's 1.5 hours, seems a bit long to me. None the less for hail. This warning comes to the border of both Dewey and Stanley counties, which are both in the viewing area.

11:10PM CDT: Phllip, SD in Haakon County is reporting penny size hail (0.75 inches). This is just barely severe, but severe none the less.

11:05PM CDT: The warning in cherry county has been allowed to expire with no extension. Looks like that cell has dropped below severe limits.

11:00PM CDT: A warning has been issued for that cell we were watching at the 10:45PM update. Its still in Jackson County, but the warning comes right to the border of Mellette county and is moving that way!

10:55PM CDT: Interesting thing here. The watch box includes all the counties I mentioned earlier (Aurora, Brule, Charles Mix, Davidson, Douglas, Gregory, Lyman, Mellette, Todd, and Tripp). Watch boxes are issued by the storm prediction center in Norman, OK and are used to outline areas of severe weather. What caught my eye is that the National Weather Service office in Sioux Falls didn't follow that outline to its exact coordinates. They only issued the "local" watch up the the Missouri River. So according to the "local" watch, Aurora, Brule, Charles Mix, Davidson, and Douglas counties are NOT in the warning.

10:50PM CDT: A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Haakon County until 10:45PM MDT (nearly an hour!). Storm is moving around 25 mph to the northeast. If this storm holds together, Stanley county may be in its way.

Also the warning in Cherry County, Nebraska has been continued. That warning comes right to the border to Todd County, but the storm is moving to the east. This storm just south of our area.

10:45PM CDT: Watching a rather tall cell that seems to be moving towards Mellette county. Hail seems to be a big threat hear. Titan is showing big vertical development in a very small area. We'll wait the next sweep from the radar to see what it will hold.

10:30PM CDT: Rapid City NWS office just continued the watch for the three of their counties inside the box. This is Mellette, Todd, and Tripp, so basically, no change.

10:25PM CDT: I'm going to briefly switch my focus to tomorrow before these warnings get here, if they last that long. Here's what we're watching for; this current complex has to get out of here before we really know anything. We will need sunshine early in the day in order to destabilize the atmosphere. We've seen a few days already this year that when the atmosphere is right we only need a brief period of heating (sometimes less than 2 hours) before we see storms.

10:15PM CDT: Sorry no updates for a while, been doing the show. It almost appears that the storms to our west aren't carrying their power like originally thought. This may be some good news. However, there is still some unstable air in our area that could help in some redevelopment.

9:40PM CDT: Storm Prediction Center continues watch for the entire area. They don't typically start cutting down the watch box for a few hours into the duration.

9:35PM CDT: We've got a report from outside the viewing area, but it is impressive and shows the power of these storms. Winds were estimated at 70MPH in Fairborn a few minutes ago. That's in Custer County.

9:25PM CDT: An update from the Rapid City National Weather Service about the watch. They're going to continue the watch for now, no surprise since it was just issued. The counties included are Mellette, Todd, and Tripp.

9:10PM CDT: Just read a discussion about the watch area. According to the statement hail up to 1.5" is possible and wind up to 70mph is as well. Doesn't seem to be much of a tornado threat.

We're going to watch a line of severe storms move across the area in what we call an MCS or mesoscale convective system. I don't think we'll need much instability to keep this MCS going. It may actually strengthen in the next few hours. Lots of warnings are already in effect out of our viewing area.

8:50PM CDT: Well two nights in a row now we've had to fire up the severe weather version of the blog. We just got a watch that runs well into the overnight hours. Here's the counties involved; Aurora, Brule, Charles Mix, Davidson, Douglas, Gregory, Lyman, Mellette, Todd, and Tripp until 4am CDT or 3am CDT. There are lots of warnings back to the west inside this box. From what I see hail is supposed to be the primary threat. However the storms are in an arc, so I wouldn't be surprised to see wind along with this. Actually Hot Springs has already reported a wind gust of 60 MPH.