1:50 AM CDT: Patrick's here! Time for me to head out and get some rest (I don't really know what that's like anymore!) We did just get a warning for Hanson, Hutchinson, McCook, Turner counties for some small hail. Seems to be marginal at best. Patrick will keep an eye on it. Thanks again for checking in on the blog. I feel this works well and look forward to your ideas in the comment section.

1:45 AM CDT: The tornado watch has been canceled for Mellette, Todd and Tripp Counties. It seems that this area is really stable now and shouldn't see anymore activity this evening.

1:30 AM CDT: The NWS in Sioux Falls has changed all their counties that were in a tornado watch over to a severe thunderstorm watch that goes until 5am CDT, like the other watch. The counties included in this switch are: Aurora, Beadle, Brule, Charles Mix, Davison, Douglas, Gregory, Jerauld, and Sanborn. The other parts of the watch have just been continued. The counties are Lyon (IA), Osceola (IA), Lincoln (MN), Murray (MN), Nobles (MN), Pipestone (MN), Bon Homme, Brookings, Clay, Hanson, Hutchinson, Kingsbury, Lake, Lincoln, McCook, Miner, Minnehaha, Moody, Turner, Union, Yankton until 5am CDT.

The threat still exists, but for now it appears to be a marginal one for now.

Watching a cell in Hanson and Hutchinson Counties that looks to be punching a bit of a punch. Also, Pierre is under the gun once again. Another storm is roaring down the Missouri River.

1:25 AM CDT: A cell is once again approaching Pierre. This looks to be the worst of everything as of now. There is a warning for Hakkon County for a Cell that looks fairly healthy. Hopefully that warning will be allowed to expire at 12:30 AM. Actually I just looked and it has expired! The entire state is warning free.

1:20 AM CDT: The watch has been canceled for a big part from the Aberdeen NWS office. Brown, Clark, Day, Dewey, Edmunds, Faulk, Marshall, McPherson, Potter, Spink, and Walworth counties are all out of the watch area. This leaves Buffalo, Hand, Hughes, Hyde, Jones, Lyman, Stanley, Sully until 3am CDT.

1:15AM CDT: The warning in Aurora, Davison, and Sanborn counties has been canceled. As of now, we're out of warnings, FINALLY! Patrick is on his way in and we're watching things closely. It looks like the activity is winding down for the moment, but we're still going to monitor the situation closely.

12:50AM CDT: An impressive gust front is moving through Aurora, Davison, Jerauld, Sanborn counties and therefore there's a sever thunderstorm warning for those counties until 1:15AM CDT.

It's pretty impressive how these cells keep firing up. We're still watching it and we'll continue to up date you on any new developments.

12:20AM CDT: No new warnings for a while. May be some good news. Currently the most impressive cell entering Aurora County from the northeast.

11:55PM CDT: There is a large cell moving toward Pierre. It seems to be packing heavy winds with some hail. Overall here's what we're expecting. We think these will all become a line and move to the east bringing very heavy winds. Winds are quickly becoming the biggest threat, but we still can't rule out a tornado. We're going to have lots of cut ins on KSFY. We apologize to those of you who want to watch Hopkins, but it will be seen in its entirety.

11:25PM CDT: Wow, lots of tornado warnings from just one cell. We were on for 3 hours with that one. Right now lots of severe thunderstorms to be worried about. The entire area can expect hail during the overnight hours.

8:20PM CDT: Just got off the air for a tornado warning in Dewey County. No reports of a tornado just yet, but talked to a gentleman who believes he saw a wall cloud.

We're getting lots of large hail reports, up to Baseball size. The area in which it is covered is not concentrated either, its rather wide.

7:30PM CDT: Just got a report of half dollar size hail near Timber Lake.

7:30PM CDT: Hail up to 3 inches in diameter are possible in the watch area along with winds up to 80 MPH. Don't forget about heavy rains and lightning. It is lightning awareness week, so make sure you stay safe.

7:25PM CDT: Here's the rundown of the counties involved in the TORNADO WATCH:

From the Aberdeen NWS: Brown, Clark, Day, Dewey, Edmunds, Faulk, Hand, Hughes, Hyde, Jones, Lyman, Marshall, McPherson, Potter, Spink, Stanley, Sully, Walworth

From the Sioux Falls NWS: Aurora, Beadle, Brule, Charles Mix, Davison, Douglas, Gregory, Jerauld, Sanborn

From the Rapid City NWS: Mellette, Todd, Tripp

7:15PM CDT: Another SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING. This time for Dewey county until 7:15 PM MDT

As I was typing there will be a Tornado Watch issued shortly for our area until 3AM CDT. We'll see shortly what area this covers, but it looks to be a big part of our area.

7:00PM CDT: OUR FIRST WARNING, Dewey County until 6:45PM MDT. Hail producing storm moving in that direction.

6:50PM CDT: There are some showers popping up to the east of Rapid City and it appears from the satellite that this might be the beginning of the system. We're still playing the waiting game for the watch. If the national weather service agrees with my assessment of that small cell then we'll see it issued very shortly.

6:40PM CDT: Lemmon in Perkins County South Dakota just reported Tea Cup size hail (3 inches in diameter). Seriously, who came up with Tea Cup to describe that. That is bigger than the Baseball size (2.75 inches) hail we were expecting.

6:30PM CDT: A big area of the viewing area will possibly be under a watch shortly (within 1-2 hours). This may include Aberdeen, Pierre, and Mobridge. Convective development is starting over the black hill and will move to the east as we've been expecting all afternoon.

6:15PM CDT: I've noticed that the biggest reported hail to this point is golf ball size hail, but the national weather service is starting to say that baseball size hail is possible with some of these cells. We'll see if it verifies, but I wouldn't be surprised given the strong updrafts with these storms.

6:00PM CDT: The storm prediction center is going to issue a watch in parts of Nebraska. We're shooting the gap on those watches for now. This concerns me because the instability keeps building. Hopefully we won't see any thunderstorms at all, but the longer we go without them, the more the instability builds up.

5:20PM CDT: In the middle of the show I've started to notice some cells diving out of that watch box in North Dakota. There are some warnings already being issued. In fact, Corson County is now under a severe thunderstorm warning until 5:15PM CDT. There are lots of reports of large hail with these storms, some as large as Half Dollars (1.25 inches in diameter).

4:35PM CDT: This may be some of the best news we can get. I just looked at one of the parameters for tornado activity. Helicity is the measurement of available rotation in the atmosphere. Looking at the projections for the 4pm observations it seems like the measurement is nearly zero which would bring out tornado threat down Jurassically.

At 7PM we'll get sounding data which will give us a vertical profile of the atmosphere. The balloon is released from Aberdeen. We'll have to see if this backs up the current projection.

4:25PM CDT: The activity that is in east central South Dakota area is doing a good job of killing the instability. I would guess that area will have trouble later on with developing severe weather.

4:00PM CDT: Looking at the hourly observations from 4 pm, it seems to me that most of the heating and moisture is sticking to the west. Pierre's dew point has jumped to 67 and the temperature is 81. We've still got plenty of time for the sun to heat things up, so if you're seeing sunshine you chance is very high for thunderstorms.

3:50PM CDT: The extreme western part of our viewing area may be under a watch here shortly. This is looking like a similar time frame to the one we saw on Tuesday night. Thunderstorm initiation will happen in far western SD within the next few hours and move eastward. We'll let you know Immediately if the watch is issued.

3:30PM CDT: Just looked at the observations from 3. The temperatures are in the 80s for much of the area and dew points are over 65. Much of this area is back to the west were we've seen lots of sunshine today. Other areas will catch up when the sunshine breaks out a little more.

3:15PM CDT: OK, here' s the story from the SPC. Thunderstorms will develop in western SD and move eastward overnight. Timing still seems to be up in the air on this. Hail and Wind once again seem to be the primary threat, but tornadoes can't be ruled out. Actually, the tornado threat is the highest its been all week.

3:05PM CDT: We've gotten the SPC's update to the situation and I was in the middle of reading it when we got our flash flood watch. Here's the counties involved: Bon Homme, Davison, Hanson, Hutchinson, Lake, McCook, Miner, Moody, Sanborn, and Yankton until 4am CDT and Lyon (IA), Osceola (IA), Nobles (MN), Rock (MN), Clay, Lincoln, Minnehaha, Turner, and Union until 7am CDT.

No surprise with this, ground is saturated and we're expecting a lot of rain. The discussion says that 1.5 inches of rain are possible in a short amount of time.

3:00PM CDT: Lots of updates coming soon, shortly after the top of the hour We'll get a new update from the SPC on our chances for today. New observations will help us understand our moisture and temperature situation. Also the Hour By Hour forecast will get updated. I'll be sure to let you know what all we're seeing as these come in.

2:25PM CDT: Our eyes have shifted to the north where there is already a severe thunderstorm watch for western North Dakota. Not sure if this is the activity we'll be dealing with, still haven't investigated that far.

1:35PM CDT: I haven't looked at much just yet, but one thing that I can say is that flash flooding may become a concern. According to Doppler radar predictions, some places saw 2 or more inches of rain last night. If those places see more then we could be dealing with flash flooding.

1:25PM CDT: Here we go again. We're watching the possibility for severe weather once again. Right now we're in a slight risk, but its a elevated slight risk. We were in a moderate risk earlier, but with the convection earlier that brought us the early showers our threat is diminished. I'm going to get to forecasting and keep you updated here once again.