The thing about climate forcasting is this, its a generalization to what "normal" is.  Let's say (for example) that 40 inches of snow is normal and we see 25 inches of snow in that year.  That would be a below normal year, but what if 21 inches of that snow fell in one day.  I bet you'd remember that winter forever, and a year with 20 snowfalls all averaging 3 inches, you might forget, dispite that it's an above normal year.

With that said, here's what normal is for our area, for the months of December, January, and February (the meteorlogical winter).

Here's the good news.  The Climate Prediction Center is calling for an above normal winter for our area.  This is all because of El Nino still being strong in the western Pacific.  So how does something thousands of miles away affect our weather?  Apparantly the warmer water changes the patterns of tropical rainfall that then changes the location of stregth of  the jet stream over the northern Pacific.  That then affects the patterns that move into the United States.

As of today (Monday, October 3rd, 2009), El Nino is still going strong, nearly 0.75 degrees celcius warmer than normal, and is forecasted to get stronger.  You can follow El Nino at the Climate Prediction Center's Southern Oscillation webpage.

Here's the report.