A new survey from Public Policy Polling suggests former Governor Mike Rounds will be South Dakota's next US Senator.
Public Policy Polling, based in Raleigh, NC, surveyed 1,069 South Dakota voters. The poll was conducted March 18-19 with 390 Democratic primary voters and 501 Republican primary voters participating.
PPP issued a news release Wednesday about the results of the poll. It says favorability ratings for former Governor Rounds and Representative Kristi Noem are so close that a primary between the two could be bruising to the Republican Party.
According to the survey, Noem has a 49/42 favorable rating and Rounds has a 51/34 favorable rating.
Meanwhile, the state's favorability of Senator Tim Johnson is split. 44 percent have a favorable opinion and 45 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the senator.
Johnson's senate term expires in 2014 and, many members of the media have been asking if he plans to seek re-election. During a conference call last week, Johnson said he had not decided whether or not to run again, but according to this PPP survey if Johnson runs again he wouldn't do well.
The survey asked participants who they would vote for in a Rounds versus Johnson ballot and a Noem versus Johnson ballot. In both surveys a Republican won. The poll shows Noem would beat Johnson 49 percent to 45 percent and Rounds would beat Johnson 52 percent to 41 percent.
The survey also played out scenarios if Johnson didn't seek re-election in 2014. It used former Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and US Attorney Brendan Johnson as Democratic Party nominees. Both hypothetical candidates have been speculated to run in 2014 if Sen. Johnson doesn't seek re-election.
The survey shows Rounds as most favorable in scenarios versus Herseth Sandlin or Johnson. The data shows Rounds beating Herseth Sandlin 49/44 and Brendan Johnson 53/44.
In 2010, Noem bumped out Herseth Sandlin 48/46. However, the PPP has Herseth Sandlin edging Noem 48/47 in a rematch. In a race against Brendan Johnson, Noem would win 49 percent to 37 percent.
Participants' opinions are favorable of Herseth Sandlin (52/37). Meanwhile, approval ratings show most voters are not sure what to think of Brendan Johnson. The US Attorney had a 25 percent approval rating but 58 percent said they are not sure about their opinions.
According to PPP, 68 percent of the 390 Democratic primary voters would vote for Herseth Sandlin and 16 percent would vote for Brendan Johnson.
The polls show Rounds would have the most success when it comes the race scenarios, but facing Noem in the primary could split the party.
According to PPP, Noem has a slightly stronger appeal among GOP members (71/18 favorability). 67 percent of GOP members surveyed say they favor of Rounds. However, according to the 501 Republican Party voters surveyed, Rounds would win the primary versus Noem 43 percent to 39 percent.
Sen. Tim Johnson said he would announce whether or not he will seek re-election later this month.
Click here to see the full results of the poll
